Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
Prediction markets currently give a 8% probability that Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?. This contract trades at 8¢ on Polymarket, closing June 30, 2026. This market has experienced extreme volatility, collapsing 86% over seven days from 51¢ to 7¢, suggesting either new information about Claude's capabilities or shifting sentiment on the exam's difficulty.
Analysis
This market has experienced extreme volatility, collapsing 86% over seven days from 51¢ to 7¢, suggesting either new information about Claude's capabilities or shifting sentiment on the exam's difficulty. The 6560% implied yield on "Yes" reflects the severe mispricing typical of tail-risk markets, though the 4¢ spread and modest $329k daily volume indicate thin liquidity that could amplify further price swings. With 74 days to resolution and a realized volatility of 4999%, this appears to be a speculative position rather than a fundamental assessment—the cliff risk index of 13 and 19.49 volatility ratio suggest the market is pricing in binary outcome scenarios rather than gradual probability updates.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard lists any Anthropic Claude model with a score of at least the specified score by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard https://scale.com/leaderboard/humanitys_last_exam.
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Trade
sf trade 0x370f7e3ea0ccad360813dbb3b657aa079287d0f5222bb6e8d82f9a1731bd9ec8 yes 100