Will Colin Allred be the Democratic nominee for TX-33?
Prediction markets currently give a 75% probability that Will Colin Allred be the Democratic nominee for TX-33?. This contract trades at 75¢ on Polymarket, closing May 26, 2026. Colin Allred commands a commanding 72¢ price with substantial open interest of $20.8K, but the market shows extreme asymmetry with a staggering 2,365% implied yield for "No" versus only 358% for "Yes"—suggesting significant tail risk that a competing candidate emerges before the March 3, 2026 primary.
Analysis
Colin Allred commands a commanding 72¢ price with substantial open interest of $20.8K, but the market shows extreme asymmetry with a staggering 2,365% implied yield for "No" versus only 358% for "Yes"—suggesting significant tail risk that a competing candidate emerges before the March 3, 2026 primary. The 144% realized volatility and modest 24-hour volume of $4.18 indicate this is a thin, volatile market where price discovery remains incomplete despite the tight 2¢ spread. With 40 days to the primary and an information arrival rate of 1.1 events per hour, expect continued price swings as rival candidates potentially declare or withdraw.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the TX-233 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
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sf trade 0x384fd558c87baa2b1c1f7aea7402b7e3a86e83a3d51d5bca61e4e9cad4eee5be yes 100