Will the H200 compute per hour price be above $2.54 on Apr 30?
Prediction markets currently give a 89% probability that Will the H200 compute per hour price be above $2.54 on Apr 30?. This contract trades at 89¢ on Kalshi, closing May 1, 2026. The market has experienced dramatic price appreciation over seven days (56¢ to 89¢), reflecting a sharp repricing toward the 89% Yes probability, though the $0 24-hour volume and wide 99¢ spread suggest minimal recent liquidity to validate this move.
Analysis
The market has experienced dramatic price appreciation over seven days (56¢ to 89¢), reflecting a sharp repricing toward the 89% Yes probability, though the $0 24-hour volume and wide 99¢ spread suggest minimal recent liquidity to validate this move. The extreme "No" implied yield of 25,191% is a red flag indicating the market may be mispriced or illiquid at the extremes, with a cliff risk index of 8 suggesting potential resolution uncertainty. With only 12 days to expiry and $456 open interest, this appears to be a thin, potentially speculative market where the H200 pricing trajectory remains the key driver.
Resolution rules
If the value of H200 compute per hour is above $2.54 on Apr 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXH200MON-26APR30-2.540 yes 100