Will Your Favorite Toy have at least 10,000 Activity (Combined Sales) on the Hits Daily Double Top 50 Chart for the week immediately following the wide release of Your Favorite Toy?
Prediction markets currently give a 99% probability that Will Your Favorite Toy have at least 10,000 Activity (Combined Sales) on the Hits Daily Double Top 50 Chart for the w.... This contract trades at 99¢ on Kalshi, closing May 1, 2026. This market exhibits extreme illiquidity with only $10 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 99¢ price potentially unreliable despite the high implied probability.
Analysis
This market exhibits extreme illiquidity with only $10 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 99¢ price potentially unreliable despite the high implied probability. The asymmetric implied yields—319% for Yes versus 20,887% for No—suggest severe mispricing, likely driven by the minimal liquidity and wide 11¢ spread rather than genuine market conviction. With 14 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 8, this contract carries significant execution risk around the wide release date, and any actual trading volume could dramatically shift the price away from the current near-certainty level.
Resolution rules
If Your Favorite Toy by Foo Fighters has at least 10,000 Activity (Combined Sales) on the Hits Daily Double Top 50 Chart for the week immediately following the wide release of Your Favorite Toy, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXALBUMSALES-YOU-ACT-10000 yes 100