Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 35% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
Prediction markets currently give a 97% probability that Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 35% on Humanity’s Last Exam?. This contract trades at 97¢ on Polymarket, closing June 30, 2026. This market is pricing Claude's performance on Humanity's Last Exam at an extremely high 97% probability, yet the "No" side offers a staggering 16,543% implied yield—a massive red flag suggesting severe mispricing or liquidity constraints on the losing side.
Analysis
This market is pricing Claude's performance on Humanity's Last Exam at an extremely high 97% probability, yet the "No" side offers a staggering 16,543% implied yield—a massive red flag suggesting severe mispricing or liquidity constraints on the losing side. With only $2,359 in 24-hour volume against $14.9k open interest and 71 days to expiry, the thin liquidity and zero spread indicate this is likely a low-activity market where the extreme odds may not reflect genuine consensus. The 7-day price stability (98¢ to 97¢) combined with a Cliff Risk Index of 32 suggests potential for sharp moves if new information emerges about Claude's actual capabilities or the exam's difficulty.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard lists any Anthropic Claude model with a score of at least the specified score by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard https://scale.com/leaderboard/humanitys_last_exam.
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Trade
sf trade 0x39456483b0efd35491f25d32c4ddd6e22646773c39c39ffbff36ebe01f9b61de yes 100