Will the Republican Party win the OH-08 House seat?

The market is pricing Republicans as heavy favorites at 83% to retain Ohio's 8th district seat, but the extreme 888% implied yield on the "No" side combined with zero 24-hour volume suggests severe illiquidity and potential mispricing of the underdog position. The 1¢ spread and modest $17k open interest indicate this is a thin market where large contrarian bets could move prices significantly, and with 201 days until the November 2026 election, there's substantial time for fundamentals to shift the race dynamics.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade