Will Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship?

The Bears are priced at a 7% probability of winning the 2027 NFC Championship, offering an extreme 1,709% implied yield on the Yes side despite zero 24-hour volume and $37,564 in open interest. The 1-cent spread is tight relative to the price, but the massive yield asymmetry and neutral regime score (0.5) suggest this is a highly speculative long-shot bet with significant cliff risk (index of 13) as the market approaches its January 2027 expiration in 284 days. The near-zero trading activity combined with outsized Yes-side yields indicates limited liquidity and potential mispricing, making this a venue for conviction bettors rather than active traders.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2027 NFC championship game. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2027 NFL NFC championship per the rules of the NFL (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2027 NFL NFC championship game is cancelled, postponed after March 31, 2027 ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from NFL (https://www.nfl.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Indicators

Regime

Trade