U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Taiwan" before 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 18% probability that U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Taiwan" before 2027?. This contract trades at 18¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026. The 18¢ price reflects extremely low conviction on a U.S.-Taiwan trade deal materializing within 258 days, with the Yes side offering an extraordinary 645% annualized yield—a stark contrast to the No side's modest 31.1% yield, suggesting significant asymmetric risk pricing.
Analysis
The 18¢ price reflects extremely low conviction on a U.S.-Taiwan trade deal materializing within 258 days, with the Yes side offering an extraordinary 645% annualized yield—a stark contrast to the No side's modest 31.1% yield, suggesting significant asymmetric risk pricing. Despite $23.4M in open interest, zero 24-hour volume and a wide 5¢ spread indicate severe illiquidity, making the high implied yield potentially illusory given execution risk. The 663% realized volatility and 2.59 vol ratio signal this market has experienced sharp historical swings, though the flat 7-day price action and neutral regime suggest current sentiment has stabilized around a low-probability outcome.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x42520d88b4fa9d58ea74d3579b14398e76873a88c09bbfc9e0e801694a547d5c yes 100