Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027
Leader sits at 34% across 17 bound outcomes, runner-up at 27%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Mexico
Outcomes
17
winner-take-all
Runner-up
27¢
India
Spread
7pp
contested
24h volume
$46
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
206 days
Venue
Polymarket
17 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027
Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?: India
0x533aab…b391
Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?: European Union
0xdb3df0…500f
Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?: South Africa
0xc77d51…4488
Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?: Pakistan
0x85ad30…a42e
Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?: Brazil
0x66cbd4…b729
Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?: Canada
0x81e8f9…3df8
Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?: Indonesia
0xffe86f…837a
Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?: Japan
0xfe61b0…1b73
Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?: United Kingdom
0xdabf29…fed7
Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?: Vietnam
0xd60f9b…62b7
Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?: South Korea
0xcc9b5e…807d
Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?: Israel
0x9121e5…edf0
Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?: Australia
0x7531c6…afb3
Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?: Mexico
0x5cbca9…2ee7
Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?: Russia
0x5b2d1c…75da
Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?: Taiwan
0x42520d…7d5c
Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?: Argentina
0x2b23c9…9fe5
Analysis
This probability reflects the likelihood that Trump will negotiate and conclude at least one new trade deal with a foreign nation by the end of 2026. The 46% level suggests traders view this as somewhat more likely than not, though with substantial uncertainty. Market activity centers on which specific country might be first: EU trade negotiations historically take months, while smaller deals (particularly with Israel or other bilateral partners) could move faster. The primary factors are Trump's stated priority on trade renegotiation, Congressional approval timelines, and whether other nations prioritize deal-making in 2026. The single biggest catalyst will be any formal announcement of trade negotiations entering advanced stages or a framework agreement being reached with a major trading partner.
- ›Trump's public statements and executive orders regarding trade priorities have typically preceded formal negotiation launches within 2-6 months
- ›Congressional support and approval authority requirements vary by deal type—bilateral agreements often move faster than multilateral frameworks
- ›Trading volume concentration on EU outcome (3¢ price, $1101 volume) versus Israel (17¢ price, $33 volume) suggests significant disagreement on which region Trump targets first
- ›No scheduled major trade negotiations with specific end-2026 deadlines are currently public, creating baseline uncertainty about timeline and scope
- ›The runner-up contract at 24% suggests roughly one-quarter of traders believe no new deals materialize, indicating meaningful execution risk
What moved the line
- Jun 5India↑5pp26→31¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 2Brazil↓4pp16→12¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 1Mexico↓4pp43→39¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 3India↑3pp26→29¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 4India↓3pp29→26¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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