Will the Smithsonian Women’s History Museum become law this year?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $725k open interest, creating a wide 33¢ spread and inflated 407% implied yield on the Yes side that likely overstates true probability. The 2957% realized volatility and 12.45 vol ratio indicate this is a highly speculative, thinly-traded position rather than an efficiently-priced forecast, with the recent 5¢ price jump (21¢ to 26¢) potentially driven by minimal order flow rather than fundamental news. With 255 days to expiry and a neutral regime, traders should be cautious about the 26¢ price as a reliable probability estimate given the severe liquidity constraints.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that authorizes siting the Women’s History Museum within the National Mall Reserve is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying legislation includes the H.R. 1329 (119th) — “Smithsonian American Women’s History Museum Act.” Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No". The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22), the Library of Congress (congress.gov), and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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