Which bills will become law in 2026?

30-day trend

Analysis

The prediction market assigns a 60% probability that the FISA Section 702 reauthorization will become law sometime in 2026. This reflects expectations about whether Congress will extend this surveillance authority, which periodically requires legislative renewal. The probability is driven by divided political incentives: security advocates and intelligence agencies typically support reauthorization, while privacy advocates and some lawmakers oppose warrantless surveillance provisions. The primary factor affecting this outcome is whether Congress prioritizes the renewal before December 2026 and whether compromise language satisfies enough members across both parties. The timeline matters significantly—delays could push the vote into the final weeks of the session, making passage less certain. Upcoming Congressional scheduling decisions and any intelligence community pressure or privacy-focused legislative proposals will materially influence whether this becomes law.

• ›Historical reauthorization pattern: Section 702 has been renewed before previous expirations (2017, 2020), suggesting a baseline expectation of passage, though with increasing political friction each renewal cycle
• ›Current Congressional composition and leadership stance on surveillance reform: Republican and Democratic floor leaders' positions on either advancing or modifying the language will determine whether a clean reauthorization reaches a vote
• ›Competing legislative priorities in 2026: If Congress faces competing deadlines (spending bills, election-year measures), surveillance reauthorization could be deprioritized or bundled into omnibus legislation that changes its passage dynamics
• ›Activist and civil liberties mobilization: Recent years have seen growing organized opposition to 702 from privacy groups, which could increase the difficulty of assembling a majority, particularly among younger lawmakers
• ›Intelligence agency pressure and any disclosed surveillance abuses: Real or alleged incidents involving the authority could shift the political calculation either direction depending on nature and timing of disclosure

What moved the line

• Jun 17Film/TV production expensing↓20pp41→21¢ · Polymarket
• Jun 18$2.50 Coin↓18pp28→10¢ · Polymarket
• Jun 17Smithsonian Women’s History Museum↓13pp28→15¢ · Polymarket
• Jun 18Credit-card routing competition↑12pp34→46¢ · Polymarket
• Jun 18AI-chip export licensing↓11pp38→27¢ · Polymarket

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds