Will Kobey Layne win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Democratic primary election?

This market shows extreme illiquidity and volatility despite modest open interest of $1.94K, with a 39¢ spread and only $1.72 in 24-hour volume suggesting very thin trading. The 1258% implied yield on the Yes side is extraordinarily high and likely reflects the small position size rather than genuine arbitrage opportunity—this is a classic low-liquidity mispricing where the extreme yield disappears with any meaningful capital deployment. The price has declined 20% over seven days (25¢ to 20¢) amid elevated realized volatility of 2293%, indicating either new information about Layne's candidacy or typical noise in an illiquid market with 116 days to expiry.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Minnesota, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Minnesota Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Minnesota Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

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