Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $100 end of April?

With only 11 days to expiration, this market shows extreme illiquidity ($40 24h volume against $597k open interest) and a massive 28¢ bid-ask spread, creating significant execution risk for any meaningful position. The 43¢ price implies Netflix needs to rally roughly 17% from current levels to close above $100, yet the astronomical 4279% implied yield on the Yes side reflects the severe liquidity constraints rather than genuine conviction—this is a classic thin-market mispricing where the spread dominates pricing mechanics. The 420% realized volatility and neutral regime suggest genuine uncertainty, but traders should be cautious: the combination of near-term expiry, minimal volume, and wide spreads makes this market more suitable for observation than active trading.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) on the final trading day of April 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NFLX/history, published under "Historical Prices." In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.

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