Will Joey Bosa play for Detroit Lions in 2026-27?

Prediction markets currently give a 50% probability that Will Joey Bosa play for Detroit Lions in 2026-27?. This contract trades at 50¢ on Polymarket, closing August 31, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $17.456 in open interest and a massive 71¢ spread, suggesting very few willing counterparties at current prices.

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50¢
Bid/Ask 1/99¢·Spread 98¢·Vol $0·OI $3.15·Closes Aug 31, 2026·124d remaining
0x52f2cfd493c52ae18b9c2017d789268e98e3a25b4b1f00062495e4e5e9f840b8
7-day price261 snapshots · 17 regime
57¢50¢ current
Apr 1141¢Apr 28

Analysis

13d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $17.456 in open interest and a massive 71¢ spread, suggesting very few willing counterparties at current prices. The 313% implied yield on the Yes side combined with 498% realized volatility indicates high uncertainty around Bosa's free agency timeline, though the neutral regime and modest 8-point price decline over seven days suggest no major news catalyst has emerged recently. With 137 days to resolution and an information arrival rate of 1.9 events per hour, this appears to be a speculative position rather than an actively traded market.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the next team Joey Bosa officially joins by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If Joey Bosa does not officially join a new team by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. If Joey Bosa joins a team that is not listed, this market will resolve to “Other”. If Joey Bosa is released, retires, or is not under contract with any professional team by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. An official signing announcement prior to the market’s close date will immediately resolve this market to the corresponding option. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official announcements from the NFL and/or the acquiring team. A consensus of credible media reporting may also be used to resolve the market.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 295.2%
IY (No) 295.2%
Adj IY 0%
CRI 1
RV 464%
VR 2.58
▶ Full indicator table (9)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)295.2%
IY (No)295.2%
Adj IY0%
CRI1
RV464%
VR2.58
IAR1.2/h
Overround15.0%
LAS1.94

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
98¢
Computed
4/29/2026, 8:44:25 AM
Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/29/2026, 8:38:27 AM

Trade

View on polymarketsf trade 0x52f2cfd493c52ae18b9c2017d789268e98e3a25b4b1f00062495e4e5e9f840b8 yes 100

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