Will Trump meet with Reza Pahlavi in April 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that Will Trump meet with Reza Pahlavi in April 2026?. This contract trades at 3¢ on Polymarket, closing April 30, 2026. This market exhibits extreme mispricing with a 3¢ price generating an absurd 85,799% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting severe illiquidity and potential manipulation given the modest $60.9k daily volume against $10.5M open interest.
Analysis
This market exhibits extreme mispricing with a 3¢ price generating an absurd 85,799% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting severe illiquidity and potential manipulation given the modest $60.9k daily volume against $10.5M open interest. The sharp 25% price decline over seven days combined with a high Cliff Risk Index of 32 and only 14 days to expiration indicates elevated tail risk, though the neutral regime score suggests no clear directional catalyst. The tight 1¢ spread and substantial open interest relative to volume suggest this may be a low-conviction, thinly-traded position rather than a genuine probability assessment of a Trump-Pahlavi meeting.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual meets with Donald Trump between April 1, and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A meeting is defined as any encounter where both the listed individual and Trump are present and interact with each other in person. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x53c4945996f0e347217c12ebad5b865a1f025238765d5296c013e13fe19047ac yes 100