Will Baidu have a #1 AI model by June 30?

This market prices Baidu's chances of reaching #1 on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard at just 4¢, implying an 11,867% annualized yield for "Yes" holders—an extraordinarily high return reflecting extreme underpricing relative to the 74-day timeframe. The $57 daily volume against $2.3M open interest signals severe illiquidity, making the 2¢ spread potentially misleading; the cliff risk index of 24 suggests meaningful execution risk if the position needs to be exited before expiry. Given Baidu's current position well outside the top rankings and the compressed timeframe to June 2026, the market appears to be pricing in near-zero probability of a major breakthrough, though the outsized yield may attract contrarian bettors if they believe recent improvements in Baidu's models have been underestimated.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.

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