Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30
Leader sits at 9% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 3%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
OpenAI
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
3¢
xAI
Spread
6pp
contested
24h volume
$933
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
26 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30
Analysis
This market is pricing a 17% probability that OpenAI will be recognized as having the #1 AI model by June 30, 2026. However, market data shows significant disagreement: Anthropic's contract for best AI model trades at 68 cents, while OpenAI's identical contract trades at just 6 cents, suggesting the question definition or timeline may be creating divergent valuations. The key driver of current pricing appears to be recent model releases and benchmark performance—traders are weighing whether OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, or other competitors will achieve clear technical leadership in the next 8 weeks. Major model announcements, benchmark results, and real-world performance metrics in enterprise or research contexts would likely shift these probabilities significantly. The resolution will depend critically on how "#1 AI model" is defined and measured at month-end.
- ›Massive discrepancy between Anthropic's 68¢ price and OpenAI's 6¢ for ostensibly the same question suggests contract terms, timeframes, or success criteria differ materially between markets
- ›OpenAI has been incrementally releasing model improvements rather than major breakthroughs recently, while Anthropic has emphasized constitutional AI development
- ›Google commands 23¢ pricing, indicating meaningful probability three-way competition exists among the top three AI labs
- ›Current 17% price reflects OpenAI as statistical favorite but far from consensus—runner-up sits at 16%, indicating high uncertainty and fragmented market expectations
- ›Resolution depends on how "#1 model" is operationalized (benchmark leaderboards, enterprise adoption, research community consensus, or subjective expert panels)—definitional clarity would likely trigger repricing
What moved the line
- May 31OpenAI↓4pp11→7¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in technology
- How many SpaceX launches in May?: 14 or morelast 90% · 1d
- Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026last 90% · 5d
- Lead Bank in SpaceX’s IPOlast 85% · 10d
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap: <500Blast 4% · 10d
- SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap (Lowest Strikes): 1T+last 97% · 10d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (9% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In technology
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.