Will Trump meet with King of Morocco Mohammed VI in April 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Will Trump meet with King of Morocco Mohammed VI in April 2026?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Polymarket, closing April 30, 2026. This market is pricing an extremely unlikely outcome at just 5¢ with only 14 days to expiry, generating an extraordinary 50,458% implied yield on the Yes side—a classic sign of minimal conviction betting on a low-probability event.
Analysis
This market is pricing an extremely unlikely outcome at just 5¢ with only 14 days to expiry, generating an extraordinary 50,458% implied yield on the Yes side—a classic sign of minimal conviction betting on a low-probability event. The $51 daily volume against $9.4M open interest suggests significant illiquidity relative to position size, creating potential execution challenges for larger traders. With no price movement over seven days and a neutral regime, the market appears fairly settled, though the high cliff risk index (19) indicates meaningful tail risk as we approach the April 30 deadline.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual meets with Donald Trump between April 1, and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A meeting is defined as any encounter where both the listed individual and Trump are present and interact with each other in person. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x574571e4e87444e0078b7b991a43eef929be16365e607a7d9a950b6df8f02752 yes 100