Will the Democratic Party win the WI-03 House seat?

This Wisconsin 3rd district market shows a Democratic lean at 72¢, but the extreme 467% implied yield on the "No" side combined with near-zero 24-hour volume ($0) and modest open interest of $7,883 suggests thin liquidity and potential mispricing rather than genuine conviction. The massive 1,850% realized volatility and 16.30 vol ratio indicate this market has experienced wild price swings, likely driven by sparse trading activity rather than fundamental news flow, making the current price potentially unreliable with 201 days until resolution.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade