Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by June 30, 2026?

The market has experienced dramatic upward momentum, surging from 38¢ to 79¢ over seven days—a 108% move—suggesting either new information about Powell's potential departure or a significant shift in trader sentiment regarding his tenure. The extremely asymmetric implied yields (359.7% for Yes versus 5090.6% for No) indicate the market is pricing in a low-probability but high-payoff scenario, with the No position offering outsized returns if Powell remains through June 2026. With only 27 days to expiry and $3.3M open interest against modest 24-hour volume of $125K, liquidity is relatively constrained for a market of this size, creating potential cliff risk (index of 4) if resolution approaches without clarification.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jerome Powell ceases to be Chair of the Federal Reserve for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Jerome Powell's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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