Will Partido dos Trabalhadores (PT) win the most seats in the next Brazilian Senate election?

The PT is priced at an extremely depressed 3¢ despite being Brazil's second-largest party and having won the 2022 presidential election, suggesting either severe market skepticism about Senate performance or potential mispricing. The astronomical 6914% implied yield on the Yes side combined with minimal $24.2 daily volume and $2,966.94 open interest indicates dangerously low liquidity and high cliff risk (32), making this contract vulnerable to sharp repricing on new political information. With 171 days to expiry and a realized volatility of 1825%, this appears to be a speculative, illiquid market where the extreme odds may not reflect PT's actual probability of winning the most Senate seats.

Resolution rules

The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election. Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).

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Regime

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