Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?

The market is pricing Democrats as heavy favorites at 75¢, but the extreme 547.5% implied yield on the "No" side signals severe mispricing or illiquidity on the Republican outcome—typical of lopsided political markets where contrarian positions attract minimal capital. The 99% realized volatility and recent 3¢ decline from 78¢ suggest meaningful uncertainty despite the high Democratic probability, while the modest $535k daily volume and $14.7m open interest indicate this isn't a heavily-traded race, making the spread-adjusted pricing potentially unreliable for large position sizing. The neutral regime score and low 0.3/h information arrival rate suggest the market is relatively stable, but the 1.25 vol ratio and cliff risk index of 3 warrant caution given the race's distance from resolution.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Maine U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

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