Maine Senate Election Winner
Leader sits at 64% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 37%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Democrat
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
37¢
Republican
Spread
27pp
contested
24h volume
$597
thin orderbook
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
137 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Maine Senate Election Winner
Maine Senate Election Winner: Democrat
0x66bbf6…639c
Maine Senate Election Winner: Republican
0x2c00cb…8c48
Analysis
Markets are currently pricing the Democratic candidate as a 72% favorite to win Maine's 2026 Senate seat, implying roughly a 3-to-1 odds advantage over the Republican challenger. This reflects Maine's recent electoral lean—the state has voted Democratic in presidential races since 2004 and elected a Democratic governor in 2022. The probability could shift substantially based on candidate performance, fundraising gaps, or demographic turnout patterns in the lead-up to November 2026. The general election on November 3, 2026, will ultimately resolve this outcome. Meaningful movement might occur following candidate announcements, primary results if contested, or major campaign events. The higher trading volume on the Republican contract ($17,426 in 24-hour volume versus $6,330 for Democrats) suggests active hedging or skepticism about the current Democratic lean among some traders.
- ›Maine has voted Democratic in presidential elections consistently since 2004, establishing a structural Democratic advantage in statewide races
- ›Republican contract volume is 2.75x higher than Democratic contract volume despite lower Republican pricing, indicating potential disagreement between price and trading interest
- ›The Democrat-Republican price differential (42 cents) implies a significant but not overwhelming advantage, leaving material room for the underdog candidate to gain ground
- ›Incumbent status, candidate quality, and campaign fundraising disparities remain unspecified variables that typically drive Senate race probabilities
- ›No scheduled primary elections or key campaign milestones are evident, suggesting current pricing reflects baseline structural conditions rather than recent campaign developments
Recently closed in election 2026
- Will Joe Baldacci be the Democratic nominee for ME-02last 29% · 1d
- Will Garrett Mason be the Republican nominee for Governor in Mainelast 83% · 1d
- Will Troy Jackson be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Mainelast 57% · 1d
- Will Labour win the 2026 Arbroath & Broughty Ferry by-electionlast 15% · 1d
- Will Restore Britain win the 2026 Makerfield by-electionlast 97% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (64% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
Related reading
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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