Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5

Prediction markets currently give a 74% probability that Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5. This contract trades at 74¢ on Polymarket, closing April 22, 2026. The 69¢ price implies a 69% probability of over 2.5 goals in this DFB-Pokal matchup, but the market shows severe liquidity concerns with zero 24-hour volume despite $66.6K open interest and an extremely wide risk-adjusted implied yield of 7033%.

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74¢
Bid/Ask 73/75¢·Spread 2¢·Vol $60.856·OI $4,091.199·Closes Apr 22, 2026
0x67487a2b0e4c3e449aad6c9fb9fd3ca05bca3db457ae9a8f9a1b83f5a9530248
7-day price53 snapshots · 2 regime
78¢74¢ current
Apr 1469¢Apr 22

Analysis

5d ago

The 69¢ price implies a 69% probability of over 2.5 goals in this DFB-Pokal matchup, but the market shows severe liquidity concerns with zero 24-hour volume despite $66.6K open interest and an extremely wide risk-adjusted implied yield of 7033%. With only 6 days to expiry and a tight 2¢ spread, the astronomical yields suggest either mispricing or illiquidity-driven distortion rather than genuine market conviction, making this a high-risk position to enter or exit.

Resolution rules

In the upcoming DFB-Pokal game between Bayer 04 Leverkusen and FC Bayern München, scheduled for April 22 at 2:45 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if Bayer 04 Leverkusen and FC Bayern München combine to score 3 or more goals in this game. If the combined total is less than 3, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. If the game is started but not completed, this market will resolve according to the official final score published on dfb.de. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
2¢
Computed
4/22/2026, 3:33:07 AM

Trade

View on polymarketsf trade 0x67487a2b0e4c3e449aad6c9fb9fd3ca05bca3db457ae9a8f9a1b83f5a9530248 yes 100

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