Will Will Venable win the 2026 AL Manager of the Year?
Prediction markets currently give a 33% probability that Will Will Venable win the 2026 AL Manager of the Year?. This contract trades at 33¢ on Polymarket, closing December 19, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $1.3M open interest, suggesting the position is largely static and potentially illiquid at the quoted 12¢ price.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $1.3M open interest, suggesting the position is largely static and potentially illiquid at the quoted 12¢ price. The 1,101% implied yield on the Yes side is a red flag indicating the 12¢ price may be artificially depressed relative to Venable's actual chances of winning the 2026 AL Manager of the Year award, though this could also reflect genuine uncertainty about his tenure or performance. With 243 days to expiry and a wide 24¢ spread, any significant price movement would likely require external catalysts such as the Padres' 2026 season performance or managerial changes across the AL.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the manager who wins the 2026 American League Manager of the Year award for the 2026 MLB Season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the manager whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x69fb99908cb611394c73d7e5e0dc292fcf412d0273e9b6bba96cb4411e735477 yes 100