Will "Avengers: Doomsday" make it into the IMDb Top 250?
Prediction markets currently give a 48% probability that Will "Avengers: Doomsday" make it into the IMDb Top 250?. This contract trades at 48¢ on Polymarket, closing March 31, 2027. This market shows minimal trading activity with zero 24-hour volume despite $1.26M open interest, suggesting liquidity constraints that could make exits difficult for position holders.
Analysis
This market shows minimal trading activity with zero 24-hour volume despite $1.26M open interest, suggesting liquidity constraints that could make exits difficult for position holders. The 51¢ price implies roughly even odds, but the extreme realized volatility of 373% and high vol ratio of 3.81 indicate sharp historical price swings disconnected from fundamental developments—likely driven by sparse, outsized trades in an illiquid venue. With nearly 350 days until expiry and an information arrival rate of 4.3 signals per hour, the market may experience significant repricing once the film releases and early audience/critical reception data emerges.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the named movie is listed on the IMDb Top 250 Movies list by March 31, 2027, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if the listed movie enters the IMDb Top 250 Movies list. The resolution source for this market will be IMDb (https://www.imdb.com/chart/top/). If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
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Trade
sf trade 0x6a0c853d6ae71361c4a0f5b02b162dfbd3cf2ffa3555c57644da9e0cce723300 yes 100