Will the Democratic Party win the TX-34 House seat?

The Democratic contract at 62¢ shows a significant asymmetry in risk-adjusted yields, with the "No" side offering 323% compared to just 102% for "Yes," suggesting the market is pricing in substantial uncertainty despite the modest 8¢ spread. With only $18 in 24-hour volume against $9.6M open interest, liquidity is severely constrained, making the 658% realized volatility potentially unreliable as a price discovery mechanism. The 4¢ price decline over seven days combined with a 6.29 volatility ratio and 3.4 info arrivals per hour indicate active but thin trading, where large orders could move prices significantly in this race with over 200 days to resolution.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-34 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade