Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $375 end of April?

The 92¢ price reflects an extremely lopsided risk profile, with the "No" side offering a theoretical 37,090% annualized yield versus just 280.5% for "Yes"—a massive asymmetry that suggests either strong conviction in a close above $375 or potential mispricing given the 78% realized volatility and neutral market regime. With only 11 days to expiry and zero 24-hour volume despite $591k open interest, this market shows illiquidity concerns that may explain the wide 6¢ spread and the modest 1¢ price decline over seven days. The Cliff Risk Index of 12 combined with a 0.5/hour information arrival rate indicates moderate event risk remains, making the extreme "No" yield potentially deceptive given execution challenges in a thin market.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on the final trading day of April 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history, published under "Historical Prices." In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.

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