Will Trump and Xi handshake last 2–6 seconds during the day of their next meeting in 2026?

The 9¢ price implies only a 9% probability of a 2–6 second Trump-Xi handshake, yet the Yes side offers an extraordinary 1427% annualized yield, suggesting severe underpricing relative to the binary outcome structure. Volume is thin at $11.12 in 24 hours against $21k open interest, and the market has declined sharply from 14¢ seven days ago, indicating either shifting sentiment toward longer/shorter handshakes or reduced conviction in a 2026 meeting occurring. With 259 days to expiry, high realized volatility (663%), and a cliff risk index of 10, this market appears speculative and illiquid, making the extreme yield potentially compensatory for execution risk rather than a true arbitrage opportunity.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the length of the longest filmed handshake between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping during the day of their next meeting in 2026 (in the local timezone of the location of their next meeting). Any handshake recorded on that date will qualify. If no handshake occurs during the date of their next meeting, or if no meeting takes place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Handshake”. If a handshake is photographed but not captured on video, this market will resolve to "Photographed only". Duration will be measured from the exact moment their hands make initial physical contact until the exact moment either breaks contact. If the measured duration falls exactly on the boundary between two duration brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. Qualifying Requirements: The handshake must be voluntary, intentional, and in person. Direct hand-to-hand contact is required (gloves or mittens are permitted). The handshake must be clearly visible on video from start to finish. Non-qualifying examples: Fist bumps, hugs, waves, or other non-handshake greetings. Any handshake that is too unclear to measure. Only photographic evidence exists without a way to measure duration. The resolution source will be video footage.

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