Will Trump and Xi handshake last 6–10 seconds during the day of their next meeting in 2026?

This market has collapsed 61% over seven days to just 13¢, suggesting either deteriorating expectations for a Trump-Xi meeting in 2026 or skepticism that any handshake would extend to the specific 6–10 second window. The extreme 944% implied yield on the Yes side reflects the severe mispricing typical of low-liquidity markets—with only $30K in 24-hour volume against $10.7M open interest, the thin spread masks potentially significant slippage. The 1,373% realized volatility and 7.0 cliff risk index indicate this market is highly unstable and prone to sharp reversals, making it suitable only for sophisticated traders comfortable with binary outcomes on geopolitical events nearly two years out.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the length of the longest filmed handshake between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping during the day of their next meeting in 2026 (in the local timezone of the location of their next meeting). Any handshake recorded on that date will qualify. If no handshake occurs during the date of their next meeting, or if no meeting takes place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Handshake”. If a handshake is photographed but not captured on video, this market will resolve to "Photographed only". Duration will be measured from the exact moment their hands make initial physical contact until the exact moment either breaks contact. If the measured duration falls exactly on the boundary between two duration brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. Qualifying Requirements: The handshake must be voluntary, intentional, and in person. Direct hand-to-hand contact is required (gloves or mittens are permitted). The handshake must be clearly visible on video from start to finish. Non-qualifying examples: Fist bumps, hugs, waves, or other non-handshake greetings. Any handshake that is too unclear to measure. Only photographic evidence exists without a way to measure duration. The resolution source will be video footage.

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