Will Free Patriotic Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?

The Free Patriotic Movement is priced at an extremely depressed 4¢ with virtually no trading activity ($0 in 24h volume), suggesting this market lacks sufficient liquidity to trust the price discovery. The implied yield on the Yes side reaches an astronomical 10,310% (risk-adjusted), which is a classic sign of an illiquid micro-position rather than genuine market consensus, particularly concerning given Lebanon's volatile political environment and the FPM's historical significance as a major parliamentary force. With 42 days until expiry and a wide 5¢ spread, this market appears underpriced relative to the FPM's realistic chances and warrants caution due to low confidence in the quoted probability.

Resolution rules

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.

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