Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner
Leader sits at 5% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 4%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Amal Movement (Amal)
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
4¢
Lebanese Forces (LF)
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$863
thin orderbook
Closes
May 31, 2026
0 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that the Lebanese Forces party will win the most seats in Lebanon's parliamentary elections. The Lebanese Forces, a Christian-majority party, is currently assigned an 8% chance despite historical positioning as a major political player. Market pricing likely reflects uncertainty around Lebanon's fragile political environment, including the ongoing influence of Hezbollah and sectarian power-sharing dynamics under the confessional system. The party's actual electoral performance will depend on voter turnout, coalition arrangements, and whether the election occurs as scheduled. Parliamentary elections in Lebanon remain difficult to predict due to frequent political instability and the complexity of its sectarian-based electoral system. The next major catalyst would be the official announcement of election dates and preliminary campaign results, which would clarify which parties can mobilize voter support and form viable coalitions.
- ›Lebanese Forces historical parliamentary performance and current polling versus the 8% market probability assigned
- ›The timing and likelihood of elections actually occurring on schedule given Lebanon's history of delayed or postponed electoral processes
- ›Hezbollah's expected seat allocation and influence on coalition formation, which affects whether other parties like Lebanese Forces can lead government formation
- ›Voter turnout rates and demographic shifts in Lebanese constituencies that determine Christian vs. Sunni vs. Shia representation
- ›International involvement and financing of various factions, particularly regional actors' support for competing political blocs
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (5% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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