Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?
Prediction markets currently give a 23% probability that Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?. This contract trades at 23¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026. The Yes position offers an exceptionally high 501.7% implied yield on a 22¢ price with over 258 days to expiry, suggesting the market may be underpricing the probability of direct Zelenskyy-Putin communication by year-end 2026.
Analysis
The Yes position offers an exceptionally high 501.7% implied yield on a 22¢ price with over 258 days to expiry, suggesting the market may be underpricing the probability of direct Zelenskyy-Putin communication by year-end 2026. However, the extremely thin 24-hour volume of just $8.04 against $13.1M open interest raises serious liquidity concerns and indicates this high yield may reflect illiquidity premium rather than genuine opportunity. The recent 3¢ price appreciation (19¢ to 22¢) combined with a neutral regime score and moderate cliff risk suggests cautious accumulation, but traders should be wary of wide bid-ask spreads when attempting to exit positions in this thinly-traded market.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin talk by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". A talk is defined as any interaction between Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin, occurring either in person or through verbal communication by phone or video call. Events that occurred prior to the start of this market will not qualify toward its resolution. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x74778c328104cd816f606f44ca9717fe83036d86417de3910ccc0c1fed5d0054 yes 100