Will Cori Bush be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?
Prediction markets currently give a 27% probability that Will Cori Bush be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?. This contract trades at 27¢ on Polymarket, closing August 4, 2026. The 31¢ price reflects a 31% probability for Cori Bush's Democratic nomination in MO-01, but the market shows severe illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $13,989 in open interest, suggesting thin trading and potential execution challenges.
Analysis
The 31¢ price reflects a 31% probability for Cori Bush's Democratic nomination in MO-01, but the market shows severe illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $13,989 in open interest, suggesting thin trading and potential execution challenges. The extraordinarily high implied yield of 746% on the "Yes" side indicates substantial mispricing or extreme uncertainty, though the 199% realized volatility and neutral regime suggest this may reflect genuine fundamental uncertainty rather than a statistical anomaly. With 109 days to resolution and a 2¢ spread, traders should be cautious about position sizing given the low liquidity environment and the possibility of sharp repricing once primary dynamics clarify.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MO-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x74efaa758c3c08921bd143b0a1696b54890834d073fc6df01dfb75f6f4e38528 yes 100