U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Australia" before 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 13% probability that U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Australia" before 2027?. This contract trades at 13¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026. The 13¢ price reflects skepticism about a U.S.-Australia trade deal materializing within 255 days, though the asymmetric 956.5% implied yield on "Yes" suggests minimal capital is needed to capture outsized returns if negotiations accelerate.
Analysis
The 13¢ price reflects skepticism about a U.S.-Australia trade deal materializing within 255 days, though the asymmetric 956.5% implied yield on "Yes" suggests minimal capital is needed to capture outsized returns if negotiations accelerate. The thin $92 daily volume and 6¢ spread indicate low liquidity, making this a speculative position rather than a liquid market, while the modest 1¢ price decline over seven days suggests stable sentiment despite the elevated cliff risk score of 7 as we approach the 2026 year-end deadline.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x7531c660ca20317d50ca9dd3a3b1df7659509bb6a415ac1f026c63be5061afb3 yes 100