Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by between 0% and 3%?

This market exhibits extreme mispricing with a 10% price implying an astronomical 8,485% annualized yield on a Yes position, suggesting severe undervaluation of a narrow 0-3% victory margin for Paxton. The 16¢ spread and minimal $84 daily volume indicate dangerously low liquidity, making the quoted price potentially unreliable and creating significant execution risk for any meaningful position size. With 39 days to resolution and a Cliff Risk Index of 9, this appears to be a speculative edge for informed traders, though the thin liquidity and extreme yield warrant caution about whether the price reflects genuine market consensus or merely illiquidity.

Resolution rules

The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending). If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

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