Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff Margin of Victory
Leader sits at 85% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 4%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Paxton 9%+
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
4¢
Paxton 6–9%
Spread
81pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$15K
liquid
Closes
May 25, 2026
0 days
Venue
Polymarket
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff Margin of Victory
Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff Margin of Victory: Paxton 9%+
0xfce5fb…a6f1
Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff Margin of Victory: Paxton 6–9%
0xf7caba…2be9
Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff Margin of Victory: Cornyn <3%
0xfbe28d…eadf
Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff Margin of Victory: Paxton 3–6%
0x94bbf8…2b2c
Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff Margin of Victory: Paxton <3%
0x7539e6…76bb
Analysis
This 26% probability reflects market expectations that Ken Paxton will win the Texas Republican Senate runoff by a margin between 15% and 20%. The current price distribution suggests traders are uncertain about the final margin, with meaningful probability mass across multiple outcome buckets from 0-5% up to 20%+. The key drivers of this assessment are Paxton's performance and name recognition in the general Republican primary electorate, his opponent's relative strength in key geographic regions, and turnout patterns in runoff elections which typically differ from primary contests. The runoff election itself will resolve this market completely, determining the actual margin of victory and validating or contradicting current market expectations about whether the race will be competitive or decisive.
- ›Turnout composition in runoff elections historically differs from first-round primaries, affecting which candidate's base mobilizes most effectively
- ›Paxton's statewide office experience and incumbent advantage versus opponent's regional or organizational strengths in specific Texas counties
- ›Early voting and absentee ballot participation rates, which may shift the electorate composition compared to election day voters
- ›Post-primary polling showing Paxton's standing relative to runoff opponent among registered Republican voters
- ›Geographic distribution of remaining candidate support, particularly performance differences in major metropolitan areas versus rural Texas counties
Recently closed in election 2026
- Who will advance from the 2026 CA-04 primarylast 97% · 2d
- Will the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate runoff be between 5% and 10%last 97% · 2d
- Will Sue Altman be the Democratic nominee for NJ-12last 93% · 2d
- Will Rom Reddy qualify for the runoff in the 2026 South Carolina Republican gubernatorial primarylast 51% · 3d
- Will Richard Davis be the Democratic nominee for TX-14last 6% · 3d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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