Will the Democratic Party win the PA-14 House seat?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $26k in open interest, suggesting the 8¢ price may not reflect true consensus and could be vulnerable to sharp moves. The 2091.8% implied yield on the Yes side is extraordinarily high—typical of deeply mispriced long-shot bets in low-liquidity venues—while the 12 Cliff Risk Index indicates significant tail risk around the November 2026 resolution date. PA-14 is a heavily Republican district, making the 8% Democratic win probability plausible as a floor price, but the massive yield asymmetry and dead volume warrant caution about whether this reflects genuine market belief or merely thin order books.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade