Will the Republican Party win the NJ-09 House seat?

The Republican contract is pricing NJ-09 as heavily Democratic-favored at just 16¢, implying a 16% GOP win probability, though the extreme 953% implied yield on the Yes side signals severe illiquidity with only $7,674 in open interest and zero 24-hour volume. The 6¢ bid-ask spread and extraordinarily high realized volatility (1845%) suggest this market lacks reliable price discovery, making the quoted probability potentially unreliable for serious prediction purposes. With 201 days to expiration and a neutral regime, this appears to be a thin, speculative contract where the headline odds should be treated cautiously given the information vacuum.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

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