Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?

The market prices Iranian regime collapse by May 31, 2026 at just 5%, reflecting the extremely low probability of such a dramatic geopolitical shift within 45 days, yet the Yes position carries an extraordinary 15,495% implied yield that vastly exceeds the No side's 42.9%, suggesting significant tail-risk pricing. With $464K open interest against only $7.2K daily volume, liquidity is thin relative to position size, creating potential slippage concerns for larger traders and indicating this is primarily a speculative tail-hedge rather than an actively traded market. The stable 5¢ price over seven days and tight 1¢ spread suggest consensus around the low probability, though the extreme yield asymmetry and moderate Cliff Risk Index of 19 warrant caution about potential sharp repricing if any destabilizing events occur in Iran before expiration.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power. Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify. Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Indicators

Regime

Trade