Will Joseph Chaplik be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?

This market shows extreme illiquidity and pricing distortion typical of thin prediction markets, with zero 24-hour volume despite $10k open interest and a wide 7-cent spread. The 3013% implied yield on the "Yes" side is a mathematical artifact of the low 10-cent price rather than a genuine opportunity—it reflects the asymmetric payoff structure where a $1 bet at 10 cents returns $10 if Chaplik wins, but this yield calculation is misleading given the market's near-zero trading activity. With 109 days to the August 4, 2026 primary and a Cliff Risk Index of 9 (extremely high), this market is essentially illiquid and unreliable for serious position-taking, though the recent price movement from 7 to 10 cents suggests modest accumulation of bearish sentiment against Chaplik's nomination chances.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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