Will the Republican Party hold between 200 and 204 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

Prediction markets currently give a 10% probability that Will the Republican Party hold between 200 and 204 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?. This contract trades at 10¢ on Polymarket, closing November 3, 2026.

████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░

10¢

Bid/Ask 9/12¢·Spread 3¢·Vol $16.11·OI $15,488.034·Closes Nov 3, 2026·195d remaining

0x7ff4e4b2f389acdd96ef18bb34684b9219a972b7ef0cde5856d28f5d5325f3d4

7-day price221 snapshots · 6 regime

13¢11¢ current

Apr 80¢Apr 22

Resolution rules

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections. This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1517.3%

IY (No) 23.2%

Adj IY 1104%

CRI 8

RV 541%

VR 1.50

▶ Full indicator table (10)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	1517.3%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	23.2%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	1104%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	8	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	541%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	1.50	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.5/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
EE	10.000	Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes
Overround	0.0%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.27	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.442

Spread

3¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 8:54:59 AM

SF edge 11.0¢ yesObservability lowEvent type political

Edges (1)

NO +11¢thesis — DOGE cut federal workforce aggressively. Now those roles are needed for wartime

Has thesisHas orderbookIndicators computed 4/22/2026, 8:53:24 AM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0x7ff4e4b2f389acdd96ef18bb34684b9219a972b7ef0cde5856d28f5d5325f3d4 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Event Overround →Realized Volatility →