2026 midterm election odds

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25%

20 markets·Kalshi + Polymarket

Kalshi

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63%

4 contracts

Polymarket

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15%

16 contracts

Cross-venue gap48¢

Analysis

Prediction markets currently indicate a 36% probability that an independent or third-party candidate will win a seat in the U.S. House or Senate during the 2026 midterms. While there is speculation regarding potential executive actions, markets assign only a 40% chance that President Trump will declare a national emergency related to the election prior to November 4, 2026.

›36% chance for independent/third-party Congressional win
›40% probability of national emergency declaration
›Rising likelihood of late-year emergency executive actions
›Limited current market anticipation of early-year election emergencies

Contracts

Will Bernie Sanders endorse Charles Booker in the 2026 United States Senate election in Kentucky before Nov 3, 2026?: Charles Booker

K$3K

88¢

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: R Senate, D House

P$2K

35¢

Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?: ≤47

P$805

25¢

Will Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House after the 2026 midterms AND hold 49 or more seats in the Senate after the 2026 midterms?: Will Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House AND hold 49 or more seats in the Senate?

K$246

78¢

Will Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House after the 2026 midterms AND hold 51 or more seats in the Senate after the 2026 midterms?: Will Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House AND hold 51 or more seats in the Senate?

K$231

50¢

Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?: 50

P$181

13¢

Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?: 53

P$174

4¢

Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?: 52

P$169

9¢

Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?: 49