2026 midterm election odds
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 16% across 16 contracts. Kalshi at 16%, Polymarket at 13% — a 3pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
16%
14 contracts
Polymarket
13%
2 contracts
Cross-venue gap
3pp
modest gap
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$348
16 contracts
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
514 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 16¢ · Polymarket 13¢ · 3pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (13¢, 2 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (16¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
15 clusters across 16 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 11% of their title tokens — “Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections” vs “Will The winning team of the 2026 Pro football Championship visit The White House before Dec 31, 2026”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections
Cluster 2
Will The winning team of the 2026 Pro football Championship visit The White House before Dec 31, 2026
Cluster 3
Will Maine have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections
Cluster 4
Will Democrats win the 2026 senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, AND Maine
Cluster 5
Will Georgia have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections
Cluster 6
Will Texas have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections
Will Texas have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?: Texas
KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-TX
Cluster 7
Will any independent or third-party candidate win an election in the U.S. House or Senate in 2026
Cluster 8
Will New Hampshire have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections
Cluster 9
Will Michigan have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections
Cluster 10
Will North Carolina have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections
Cluster 11
Will Iowa have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections
Will Iowa have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?: Iowa
KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-IA
Cluster 12
Will Ohio have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections
Will Ohio have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?: Ohio
KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-OH
Cluster 13
Will Alaska have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections
Will Alaska have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?: Alaska
KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-AK
Cluster 14
Will Nebraska have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections
Cluster 15
Will Minnesota have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections
Analysis
Prediction markets currently indicate a 46% probability that Democrats will win the 2026 Senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine combined. There is minimal expectation of a pre-midterm DNC convention occurring by early November, with current market pricing reflecting only a 5% chance of such an event.
- ›46% Democratic Senate sweep probability
- ›5% chance of pre-midterm DNC convention
- ›US political landscape
What moved the line
- Jun 4Yes↓14pp41→27¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 5Yes↑7pp27→34¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 4Yes↓7pp53→46¢ · Kalshi
- May 3151↑5pp12→17¢ · Polymarket
- May 31Yes↓4pp47→43¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in election 2026
- Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by...last 97% · 1d
- Andalusia Election: PSOE-A # of seats?: 27-29last 53% · 1d
- Andalusia Election: PP # of seats?: 53-55last 48% · 1d
- Will the White House Press Secretary say Radical Left at her next press briefinglast 15% · 2d
- # of seats won by PPP in South Korea by-elections?: 3last 50% · 2d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in election 2026.
In election 2026
Related reading
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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