2026 midterm election odds
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 15% across 11 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
15%
11 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$6K
11 contracts
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
408 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
11 clusters across 11 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Michigan have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections
Cluster 2
Will Maine have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections
Cluster 3
Will New Hampshire have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections
Cluster 4
Will Democrats win the 2026 senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, AND Maine
Cluster 5
Will Alaska have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections
Cluster 6
Will Texas have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections
Cluster 7
Will The winning team of the 2026 Pro football Championship visit The White House before Dec 31, 2026
Cluster 8
Will Iowa have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections
Will Iowa have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?: Iowa
KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-IA
Cluster 9
Will Ohio have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections
Will Ohio have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?: Ohio
KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-OH
Cluster 10
Will Nebraska have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections
Cluster 11
Will any independent or third-party candidate win an election in the U.S. House or Senate in 2026
Analysis
Prediction markets currently indicate an 85% probability that Democrats will hold at least 218 House seats and 49 Senate seats following the 2026 midterms. Market sentiment remains cautious regarding third-party impact, assigning only a 35% chance that an independent or third-party candidate will secure a victory in the House or Senate. Additionally, there is a high market-implied confidence (85% to 91% range) that at least 13 to 16 Democratic House members will be elected from districts carried by Donald Trump in 2024.
- ›85% chance for Democratic congressional majority floor
- ›35% chance of third-party/independent breakthrough
- ›High confidence in Democratic performance in Trump-won districts
- ›Midterm legislative composition outlook
What moved the line
- Sep 17Yes↓18pp31→13¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 19Yes↑8pp16→24¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Yes↓7pp11→4¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Yes↑3pp13→16¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in election 2026
- Will Left Party be the sole party with the seventh-highest nationwide valid-vote share in the Swedish Election Authority's final certified result for the 2026 Riksdag electionlast 13% · 1d
- Will the margin of victory for Graham Platner in the 2026 Maine Democratic Senate primary be between 30% and 40%last 97% · 2d
- Will the margin of victory for Mike Mazzei in the 2026 Oklahoma Republican Governor runoff be at least 6%last 97% · 2d
- Will the total count of candidates endorsed by the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA), including local chapters, who win a 2026 federal primary election scheduled on or after June 25, 2026 be above 10 primary elections scheduled on or after June 25, 2026last 46% · 3d
- Who will win the 2026 Providence, RI mayoral electionlast 82% · 3d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in election 2026.
In election 2026
Related reading
Midterm 2026 Markets Surge with Over 300 Contracts and $4M+ Volume
The 2026 midterm cycle is heating up with high-volume markets on House, Senate, and gubernatorial races. The current probabilities suggest a competitive environment, with key swing states like Texas, Iowa, and Michigan drawing the most action.
Democrats heavily favored to flip the House; Texas Senate race a key upset risk
The House control market shows a 10¢ vs 89¢ split for Republicans vs Democrats, implying a 9-to-1 probability of a Democratic majority. Texas' Senate race is more competitive, with the Democratic candidate at 57¢.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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