2026 midterm election odds
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 18% across 12 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
18%
12 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$4K
12 contracts
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
465 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
12 clusters across 12 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 32% of their title tokens — “Will Democrats win the 2026 senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, AND Maine” vs “Will Maine have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Democrats win the 2026 senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, AND Maine
Cluster 2
Will Maine have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections
Cluster 3
Will Texas have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections
Cluster 4
Will Ohio have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections
Cluster 5
Will The winning team of the 2026 Pro football Championship visit The White House before Dec 31, 2026
Cluster 6
Will Alaska have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections
Cluster 7
Will Georgia have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections
Cluster 8
Will any independent or third-party candidate win an election in the U.S. House or Senate in 2026
Cluster 9
Will Michigan have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections
Cluster 10
Will North Carolina have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections
Cluster 11
Will Iowa have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections
Will Iowa have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?: Iowa
KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-IA
Cluster 12
Will Nebraska have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections
Analysis
Prediction markets currently indicate a 40% probability that Democrats secure a significant legislative sweep by holding at least 235 House seats and 51 Senate seats. There is a strong consensus that Senate Democratic incumbents are relatively safe, with a 78% probability that zero current Senate Democrats lose their re-election bids.
- ›40% probability of Democratic House and Senate sweep
- ›78% probability of zero Senate Democratic losses
- ›High stability for Senate incumbents
- ›Market focus on specific seat thresholds
What moved the line
- Jul 20Yes↑7pp23→30¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 21Yes↑5pp30→35¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 19Yes↑4pp52→56¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 22Yes↓3pp58→55¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 24Yes↓3pp55→52¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in election 2026
- Will Carlos Vila Nova win the 2026 São Toméan presidential electionlast 5% · 3d
- Will a budget resolution passed the House before Aug 1, 2026last 90% · 3d
- Will Travis Grantham be the Republican nominee for AZ-5last 50% · 3d
- Will Maria Flores be the Democratic nominee for AZ-08last 56% · 3d
- Will the Democratic National Committee's cash on hand be above 12000000 as of June 30, 2026last 73% · 5d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in election 2026.
In election 2026
Related reading
2026 Midterm Elections: High-Volume Action on House and Senate Control
Democrats favored to win House at 82¢ (KXCONTROLH) while Senate is a toss-up. Key Senate races in Texas (55¢ R), Nebraska (28¢ independent), and Maine (34¢ R) see heavy trading. Primary markets are also active with high-volume contracts on Florida governor, Wisconsin governor, and Michigan Senate primaries.
2026 US Midterm Primaries Heat Up – Michigan Senate Race Draws Record Volume
The Michigan Senate Democratic primary has become the most actively traded election market, with Abdul El-Sayed leading at 67¢ and Haley Stevens at 31¢. Overall, Democrats are favored to keep the House (81¢) while the Senate remains a toss-up (Republicans 54¢). The SAVE Act (voter ID) languishes at 9¢.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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