Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?
Prediction markets currently give a 93% probability that Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?. This contract trades at 93¢ on Polymarket, closing July 31, 2026. Graham Platner is priced at an extremely high 92¢ with a tight 1¢ spread, suggesting strong consensus he'll win Maine's Democratic Senate primary, yet the "No" side offers a remarkable 4000.6% implied yield—a massive asymmetry indicating either severe mispricing or extreme tail risk that traders are heavily discounting.
Analysis
Graham Platner is priced at an extremely high 92¢ with a tight 1¢ spread, suggesting strong consensus he'll win Maine's Democratic Senate primary, yet the "No" side offers a remarkable 4000.6% implied yield—a massive asymmetry indicating either severe mispricing or extreme tail risk that traders are heavily discounting. The 77% realized volatility and 12 cliff risk index suggest this market has experienced sharp moves despite the dominant pricing, and with 105 days to expiry and only $47k open interest, liquidity is modest for such a high-conviction outcome. The 30.3% annualized yield on the "Yes" side appears reasonable given the timeframe, but the extreme No-side yield warrants caution about potential primary surprises or resolution ambiguities.
Also on kalshi at 90¢(Δ +3¢)
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Maine. If no 2026 Maine Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Maine Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
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sf trade 0x807a5bd3d52942c2d8b58bf71a583d4aa03a637f3fd9ff7a7c4a1ad818003067 yes 100