Will the Democrats win the Oklahoma Senate race in 2026?

The market is pricing Democrats at an extremely low 5% probability despite an unusually high implied yield of 3,469% on the Yes side, suggesting minimal liquidity with only $20.6k open interest and zero 24-hour volume. The 1¢ spread is notably tight for such a low-probability event, and the recent price decline from 6¢ to 5¢ over seven days indicates modest downward pressure, though the neutral regime score (0.477) suggests no extreme market stress. With nearly two years until resolution, this appears to be a thin, speculative position rather than an actively traded market reflecting genuine Democratic viability in Oklahoma.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oklahoma U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Indicators

Regime

Trade