Trump out as President before GTA VI?

This market prices Trump's removal from office before GTA VI's US release at 52%, reflecting genuine uncertainty around both events' timing within the 105-day window. The exceptionally high implied yields (320.8% for Yes, 376.5% for No) signal illiquidity relative to open interest of $62k, with modest 24-hour volume of $3.7k suggesting thin trading despite the tight 1¢ spread. The neutral regime and minimal 7-day price drift (53¢ to 52¢) indicate the market has stabilized, though the 50-50 default resolution creates cliff risk if neither event materializes by the July 2026 expiry.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump ceases to be the President of the U.S. for any period of time before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count. The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive. An announcement of Trump's resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, will not count. The resolution source for Trump leaving the presidency will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Indicators

Regime

Trade