What is the current probability for "Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 36¢ (36% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on May 31, 2026. 39 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 1658.8% and 524.8% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 36% probability that Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?. This contract trades at 36¢ on Polymarket, closing May 31, 2026.

██████████████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░

36¢

Bid/Ask 35/36¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $17,235.442·OI $531,319.012·Closes May 31, 2026·39d remaining

0x852fcfca1dfa1372b768aa6df2269d20564378bb6fe9c64bba3bc040370c1efd

7-day price115 snapshots · 130 regime

36¢36¢ current

Apr 820¢Apr 21

Cross-venue

Also on kalshi at 35¢(Δ +1¢)

View counterpart →Match confidence 0.72IY 88.2%Close-time delta 17510h

Resolution rules

This is a polymarket on whether the listed team will win the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team is officially crowned the winner of the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed team to win the tournament (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the market will resolve to "No". If the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League is canceled or not completed by October 1, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source will be official information from UEFA Champions League (https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1658.8%

IY (No) 524.8%

Adj IY 806%

CRI 2

Overround 0.0%

LAS 0.03

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	1658.8%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	524.8%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	806%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	0.0%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.03	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.341

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 9:23:21 PM

Observability lowEvent type sports

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 9:08:18 PM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0x852fcfca1dfa1372b768aa6df2269d20564378bb6fe9c64bba3bc040370c1efd yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

Related Prediction Market Questions