Will Dan Muse win the 2025–2026 NHL Jack Adams Award?
Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that Will Dan Muse win the 2025–2026 NHL Jack Adams Award?. This contract trades at 3¢ on Polymarket, closing June 30, 2026. Dan Muse is priced at an extremely depressed 3¢ with virtually no 24-hour volume, suggesting this is a thin, illiquid market where the price may not reflect genuine belief—the 7,972% risk-adjusted implied yield on the Yes side is a red flag for mispricing rather than genuine opportunity.
Analysis
Dan Muse is priced at an extremely depressed 3¢ with virtually no 24-hour volume, suggesting this is a thin, illiquid market where the price may not reflect genuine belief—the 7,972% risk-adjusted implied yield on the Yes side is a red flag for mispricing rather than genuine opportunity. The market has experienced sharp downward movement from 7¢ to 3¢ over seven days with 74 days to expiration, and the 4¢ spread indicates significant bid-ask uncertainty on such a low-probability outcome. With $995k in open interest but zero recent trading, this appears to be a stale position market where the current price may be artificially suppressed by lack of liquidity rather than reflecting Muse's actual chances of winning the Jack Adams Award.
Also on kalshi at —¢
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the player who is awarded the 2025–26 NHL Jack Adams Award. If the listed player is not announced as a finalist for the 2025–26 Jack Adams Award, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NHL. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x8553aadccae43b9505ac4822efa96e463af220f7450f5e4b040df583e74ad042 yes 100