Will the Republican Party win the NY-07 House seat?

This market shows extreme pricing distortion with a 6¢ bid reflecting only 6% Republican odds in a historically Democratic district (NY-07), yet the implied yield on a Yes position reaches an astronomical 2,849.9%, suggesting severe illiquidity and potential mispricing. With zero 24-hour volume despite $36.7M open interest and 201 days to expiration, the market appears frozen with no recent price discovery, making the current quote potentially stale or unrepresentative of true consensus probability. The 16 Cliff Risk Index and 1¢ spread indicate this is a low-liquidity, high-volatility micro-market where any meaningful trade could dramatically move prices.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

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