Will the Democratic Party win the MI-09 House seat?

This market displays extreme mispricing with a 9¢ Democratic price generating a 1,845% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting either severe undervaluation or structural liquidity issues preventing rational arbitrage. The zero 24-hour volume combined with $13,151.71 open interest and a tight 2¢ spread indicates the market is essentially frozen despite 200 days to expiration, raising questions about whether this reflects genuine conviction or simply illiquidity trapping positions. The 10/10 Cliff Risk Index and massive yield differential (No side at only 18%) warrant caution—this could represent either a genuine market inefficiency or a sign that the underlying contract mechanics or resolution criteria are creating distortions that sophisticated traders are avoiding.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade